He Predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Now… | NYT Opinion
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Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are scheduled to debate on Sept. 10, but the 2024 presidential election is already in the bag — at least according to Allan Lichtman, the American University historian who’s been dubbed the Nostradamus of presidential election predictions for his near-perfect 40-year track record. Mr. Lichtman was among the few to accurately predict Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 (earning him a Sharpie-scribbled note from the candidate lauding the “GOOD CALL!”). Immediately after the first 2024 presidential debate, between Mr. Trump and President Biden, Mr. Lichtman was also quick to warn that Mr. Biden dropping out of the race could be a “tragic mistake for Democrats,” leading him directly into an online battle with the forecaster Nate Silver. The confidence is rooted in Mr. Lichtman’s simple, history-driven model, which tunes out polls and pollsters and instead focuses on 13 true-or-false questions that he says hold the “keys” to the White House. So can a model that looks all the way back to the horse and buggy days survive in an unprecedented election year marked by criminal proceedings, an assassination attempt and that Democratic switcheroo? Mr. Lichtman is confident that it can. And what is his prediction in this unpredictable year? Well, for that, you’ll have to watch the video. Subscribe: http://bit.ly/U8Ys7n More from The New York Times Video: http://nytimes.com/video ---------- Whether it's reporting on conflicts abroad and political divisions at home, or covering the latest style trends and scientific developments, New York Times video journalists provide a revealing and unforgettable view of the world. It's all the news that's fit to watch.

Looks like it’s over for Donnie. Woah.

    • Buttermilk@lemmy.mlEnglish
      21·
      2 months ago

      He predicts Harris will win citing 8 keys he uses:

       No primary contest and the party is largely behind her

 No sizable third party spoil

 In the short term and long term economies are good

 Biden made large policy changes like Paris accords, chips act, inflation reduction act

 No sustained social unrest

 No meaningful white house scandals

 Challenger charisma is limited to a narrow base

      The points against her are:

       Midterm gains by challengers

 Harris isn't the incumbent

      With Foreign policy failures and Foreign policy success left unchecked because she passed the majority of the keys.

      With those last two he says “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza. Which is a humanitarian disaster, with no end in sight”

      • YourMom [he/him]@hexbear.netOPEnglish
        5·
        2 months ago

        Honestly I think the lack of a primary is negative. But those keys aren’t that bad tbh. He’s just wrong on multiple points.

    • Aquilae [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
      15·
      2 months ago

      Allan Lichtman, the American University historian who’s been dubbed the Nostradamus of presidential election predictions for his near-perfect 40-year track record.

      10 coin flips in a row is about 0.1% chance

      But if there’s few thousand people predicting elections each term, there’s bound to be a few people that get it correct every time

  • GalaxyBrain [they/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
    9·
    2 months ago

    I’m bad at math but that’s only 7 presidents, so that’s 7 fifty fifty shots. If that were done as coin flips for everyone in America of voting age during those elections,.I’m pretty sure you’d see a thousand or more of the same results as this guy.

  • Ericthescruffy [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    4·
    2 months ago

    I don’t want to give this guy undo credit but I think it’s worth pointing out that the one election he got “wrong” was apparently the election of 2000. He predicted Gore would win.

    …yeah.