Ukraine war will end in surrender - Asia Times
asiatimes.com
The Ukraine war will end in a surrender, not in a negotiated deal. That is my sense of where the war is headed and why the parties cannot negotiate a
  • OrnluWolfjarl@lemmygrad.ml
    352·
    4 months ago

    Zelensky this last week started saying that Ukraine will start negotiating by the end of the year.

    The recent “peace summit” in Switzerland was a failure, but immediately afterwards we saw a bunch of Western nations ramping up the aid and committing to deploying support personell for the rear (mostly medics and engineers they say). Probably Zelensky promised there will be one last counteroffensive. If some success, he’s probably thinking he will convince the Russians to accept less concessions.

    He announced this week that Russia must accept:

    • Ukraine joining NATO (no chance)

    • Ukraine joining the EU (maybe feasible, as Putin’s last terms did not prohibit this)

    • Russia to pay Ukraine monetary concessions for the war and lost territorry (significant that the Ukrainians are backpedalling on 1991 borders; maybe Russia will actually pay as a negotiating chip for further Ukrainian concessions)

    He did not talk about:

    • demilitarization (which will definitely be a Russian term)

    • denazification (which Russia will likely accept symbolically, in favour of other concessions)

    • commitment to neutrality (which Russia will definitely demand)

    And he still wants to treat Russia through a third party (likely the US/UK, possibly China) which Russia will not accept.

    The Biden-Trump debate, as well as the French election results have shown that the West is unlikely to continue supporting Ukraine for long. That Zelensky is willing to negotiate by the end of the year probably has something to do with Biden’s likely exit from the White House in January.

    Furthermore, the current situation on the ground could not be more starkingly obvious:

    • Russians are sweeping Ukrainian defenses and making massive gains in significant areas.

    • The recent mobilization in Ukraine was a massive failure. Newly mobilized troops are either surrendering en masse AND giving up information to the Russians (which has led to an increase in precision strikes on Ukrainian HQs, ammo depots, vehicle depots and areas of troop concentration), or refusing to attack or take up positions for defense, or dying in large numbers due to poor training.

    • Ukrainian manpower is completely depleted and Ukrainian losses are climbing to record numbers.

    • Lack of defensive works that outlines the massive corruption regarding Western aid

    • Removal of commanding officers (like the general that Azov wanted removed) and disagreements between general staff and Zelensky (Zelensky and Syrsky are not getting along - it is likely that Syrsky refused to carry out a counteroffensive - also the aforementioned removed general was Syrsky’s friend/supporter/ally).

    It is no wonder that Western media will start actually telling some truth about Project Ukraine. They need to prepare the people for the inevitable defeat of the West in Ukraine.

    • Tankiedesantski [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
      20·
      4 months ago

      Probably Zelensky promised there will be one last counteroffensive. If some success, he’s probably thinking he will convince the Russians to accept less concessions.

      This sounds like the kind of magical thinking that pervaded German high command in later 1944. “If we can take the port at Antwerp, the Western Allies will sue for peace” sort of unrealistic insanity.

    • USSR Enjoyer@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
      13·
      4 months ago

      Allowing the seized 300 billion be used for concessions (with conditions that it be used to rebuild civilian infrastructure) might be a good deal since the US is going to look to keep it anyway. But I’m not sure who would be trustworthy, effective guarantors for Ukraine neutrality at this point.

      I think we all agree at this point that holding out for better negotiating terms will only result in a weaker position and worse outcome for Ukraine. Zelenskyy needs to wake up and start peace talks immediately.

      • OrnluWolfjarl@lemmygrad.ml
        9·
        4 months ago

        I think we all agree at this point that holding out for better negotiating terms will only result in a weaker position and worse outcome for Ukraine. Zelenskyy needs to wake up and start peace talks immediately.

        There’s been efforts to elevate the Azov Nazis in the eyes of Ukrainians recently, and the US has lifted sanctions to equip them. It’s likely that they’ll be used to conduct another coup if Zelensky tries to negotiate too early/give away too much. Or they are being prepared to take power again after peace is signed and Zelensky is gone.

        • USSR Enjoyer@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
          6·
          4 months ago

          Yeah, I don’t mean for Zelenskyy himself; there’s no way for him to hold onto power. He can only become more unpopular. The maximalist charade to look powerful in front of the Banderites isn’t going to play out well for him, and the longer he stays in office the more likely he’ll get killed in a coup. If he capitulates, the Banderites will likely keep their promise to hang him. I’m not holding my breath, but if Zelenskyy cares at all about saving human lives he should do it now.

  • USSR Enjoyer@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
    181·
    4 months ago

    That article goes pretty hard. It’s been slow, but more msm are calling this what it is. I really hope popping that narrative can force significant western deescalation. I’m not sure what else can at this point.