Image is of the aftermath of an Israeli bombing of Beirut in 2006.
We are now almost one year into the war and genocide in Gaza. Despite profound hardship, the Gazan Resistance continues its battles against the enemy, entirely undeterred. Despite Israeli proclamations throughout 2024 that they have cleared out Hamas from various places throughout Gaza, we still see regular attacks and ambushes against Zionist forces. Just today (Monday), Al Qassam fighters ambushed and destroyed another convoy of Israeli vehicles. The predictions early on in the war were that Israel would defeat Hamas in mere months, needing only until December, then January, and so on. This has proven very much untrue. Israel is stuck in the mud; unable to destroy their enemy due to their lack of knowledge about the “Gaza Metro” and, of course, a lack of actual fighting skill, given how many times I’ve seen Zionists getting shot while they gaze wistfully out of windows.
The same quagmire will occur in Lebanon, only considerably worse. Both Nasrallah and Sinwar possess a similar strategy of luring Zionist forces onto known, friendly territory, replete with traps and ambushes, to bleed them dry of equipment, manpower, and the will to continue fighting. The scale of the invasion could fall anywhere on the spectrum from “very limited” - more of a series of raids on Hezbollah positions than truly trying to occupy land - to a total invasion which would seek to permanently take control of Southern Lebanon. Neither is likely to destroy, or even substantially diminish Hezbollah’s fighting abilities. This is not wishful thinking: Hezbollah has convincingly defeated Israel twice before in its history, pushing them from their territory, and both times Hezbollah had almost no missiles and a limited supply of other equipment, relying on improvisation as often as not. The Hezbollah of 2024 is an entirely different organization to that of the early 2000s.
Attempts to drive wedges between Hezbollah and the rest of Lebanon are also unlikely to succeed. Hezbollah is not just a military force, it is extremely interlinked into various communities throughout Lebanon, drawing upon those communities to recruit soldiers. Throughout its history, it has provided education, healthcare, reconstruction, and dozens of other services one would attribute to a state. Amal Saad’s recent suggestion of using “quasi-state actor” as a more respectful replacement for the typical “non-state actor” seems advisable. And the decentralized command structures, compartmented leadership, strong succession planning, and aforementioned community ties almost entirely neutralizes the effectiveness of assassinations. Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem has confirmed that Hezbollah’s path has been set by Nasrallah, and his martyrdom will not stop nor even pause their efforts. Additionally, he confirmed that despite the recent attacks by Israel which nominally focussed on destroying missile depots, Hezbollah’s supply of weapons has not been degraded, and they are still only using the minimum of their capabilities.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Full satellite imagery has been released on the results of the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Nevatim Air Base in Israel. For now, 33 direct hits can be seen:
Note that this is not counting the hits from attacks on other bases.
Biden:
“No administration has helped Israel more than I have. None. None. None.”
I hope someone strings this motherfucker upside down on a lamp post
Israel Defense Forces tells Ireland and Unifil to remove peacekeepers from Lebanese border outpost Irish Times, Oct 4 2024
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has told Ireland to remove its peacekeepers from an outpost on the border with Lebanon as its invasion of the country continues.
Sources confirmed the request was made to the headquarters of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) and individual countries contributing troops, including Ireland. Israel has been told the troops will remain in place.
edit: this part is probably also worth highlighting
There is one Irish outpost on the Lebanese-Israeli border, which is known as the Blue Line. This outpost, designated post 6-52, is manned by a single Irish platoon who are responsible for observing the border and reporting on incursions.
From the satellite footage so far of the Israeli air bases, I’d say they got perhaps 2x F-35s destroyed, not 20. The Iranian missiles just aren’t accurate enough to take on hardened hangers unless fired in higher volume. I’d wager it’s still a cost effective way to knock out F-35s in a full war though.
It appears that if war kicked off and Iran did some full sends, they could actually do some real damage, and I’m guessing that was the message they wanted to send.
I completely missed that Macklemore released Hind’s Hall 2 a couple weeks ago; with Palestinian artists and a Palestinian choir to boot. I’m guessing if I missed it than other did too, so sharing here. It’s just as good as the first one IMO. The line they can bury us, but they will find out we are seeds hits quite hard.
Israel warns rescue workers against going to strike-hit areas - Lebanon Civil Defence 16:55 BST
Israel has threatened to strike Lebanese search and rescue teams if they go to the southern suburbs of Beirut to help those trapped under the rubble, according to Lebanon’s Civil Defence.
Following Israel’s massive strike on a residential neighbourhood in Dahieh overnight, the Civil Defence – administered by the Ministry of Interior - received a call saying any teams heading to the area within 72 hours of the attack will be struck, they told the BBC.
Lebanon’s national news agency said the Prime Minister Najib Mikati has made several calls to foreign officials asking them to pressure Israel to allow search and rescue teams to do their work.
Israel has hit rescue teams and health workers across south Lebanon and in Beirut, killing and wounding dozens. Yesterday the Lebanese minister of health said Israel had killed 97 health and search and rescue workers so far and injured 188.
The majority of those killed are from the Islamic Health Organisation - linked to Hezbollah - which has been offering health services to the displaced and conducting search-and-rescue operations.
Teams from the Lebanese Red Cross, the Lebanese Civil Defence, the Islamic Risala Scout Association, and the Amel Association international, have also been struck by Israel, according to the Lebanese minister.
The BBC has asked the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for comment.
It seems that the US / UK terror regimes are increasing their terror attacks against Yemen
⚡️ ⭕️ #Yemen: Al Mayadeen correspondent:
4 aggressive raids target the north of the capital, #Sanaa
Oct 4, 2024 · 2:29 PM UTC
https://nitter.poast.org/ME_Observer_/status/1842210556578594818
It’s been interesting how stable Lebanese pound has been even in the black market despite Israeli invasion and bombings (at 92,000LBP for a dollar)
Likely because their current policy (after the crash and 6000% devaluation, it was 1500 LBP for a dollar for decades) is to provide more pounds to foreigners than they would get at market rate.
Whenever there is instability the black market prices go up, it happened in Venezuela too during the recent elections and that wasn’t anywhere close to as damaging as what Israel is doing.
White House To Meddle In Lebanese Policies - Provoking More Bombings | Moon of Alabama
The stupidity - it hurts.
Wow, can’t believe Commie Kamala seeded the clouds to make the hurricanes worse and also gave all the FEMA money to the illegals so now they can’t provide enough emergency relief to North Carolina, boy is it swell being able to make up fairy tales so as not to confront the realities of climate change and imperialism. We also need to stop giving Ukraine all our money…oh wait, Israel needs $400 billion to blow up a school? By all means, I’m okay with that!
The western left is afraid of its own shadow and completely useless, exhibit #586254:
During yesterday’s opening of Denmark’s rubber-stamp parliament, the small pro-democracy centre-left Red-Green party was met by pointless bad-faith attacks by right-wing regime representatives for having met with PFLP representatives and for having house an event featuring anti-imperialist author Torkil Lauesen. Back in the 1970’s and 80’s Lauesen was part of a group that raised funds for the PFLP through bank heists.
The right demanded that Red-Green not-party-leader Pelle Dragsted answered a silly bad-faith question of whether you could remain a member of the party if you sympathise with the PFLP. True to his spineless nature, Dragsted did not tell them to go fuck themselves or attempt a defence of the Palestinian resistance movement it his own party members. Instead recited milquetoast liberal phrases about how the alleged transgressions had been done by individuals who didn’t reflect official party line and how the Red-Greens condemns “any kind of violence and terror against civilians”.
Western leftists has had their minds poisoned by generations of anti-communist propaganda and had had their spirit completely broken by the disaster of the 1990’s counter-revolutions. Parties with roots back to militant labour activism and bold antifascist resistance has turned into some of the most conflict-averse liberal teddy bears on the planet. They are so afraid that some reactionary knucklehead is going to be mad at them or that some lanyard duel is going to accuse them of not being civil enough that they have turned completely harmless.
Israel is already using the Gaza playbook in Lebanon. They’re destroying the healthcare system and killing paramedics.
The entire staff of Marjayoun public hospital in south Lebanon were evacuated on Friday morning after an Israeli drone strike killed four paramedics, putting the hospital out of service, Lebanon’s national news agency reported. The hospital was one of the major medical providers in south Lebanon, particularly as Israel’s intensified aerial campaign which started on 23 September displaced many medical staff from the region.
“They hit right next to us, so we had to flee. The area is very dangerous and there is no one on the roads and I am driving alone,” Shoshana Mazraani, the head of the emergency services at Marjayoun public hospital, said while fleeing. Israel also carried out a strike on the Islamic health organisation’s center in Khirbet Selem, causing injuries on Friday afternoon, according to Lebanon’s national news agency.
An additional member of the ambulance service was killed and one injured while carrying out rescue services in the southern suburbs of Beirut, which was intensely bombed the night prior, according to Hezbollah-affiliated media. Lebanon’s prime minister Najib Mikati had a series of diplomatic meetings on Friday in order to pressure Israel to safely allow rescue and relief teams to transfer victims of airstrikes.
At least 102 Lebanese paramedics have been killed since the beginning of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah a year prior.
Weapons grade cope in this morning’s Economist. (In their Espresso app so I can only share the text, no link)
When an Israeli bomb killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbullah, last week it also decapitated a fearsome militia and dealt a blow to Iran’s “axis of resistance”, a constellation of proxy forces. His funeral is rumoured to be held on Friday. Since then, Iran has fired directly on Israel. But it appeared to fail in its objectives of hitting two air-force bases and a military-intelligence facility. Most of the missiles were intercepted and destroyed mid-air.
“Most of the missiles” is truly incredible reality invention, especially given we’ve more and more satellite evidence Iran successfully hit those airbases.
Iran is ending this year weaker than it began. Although it has warned Israel against hitting back, Israel’s retaliation will probably be of a far greater magnitude. And the proxies that are its first line of defence are struggling. Hamas is markedly weaker after a year of war in Gaza; the Houthis’ income has been cut along with the flow of goods from Hodeida, Yemen’s main port. As Iran mourns Nasrallah, it also mourns the depletion of its power.
They really are living on another planet. Hamas is still functioning and scoring hits on a war machine a hundred times its size after a year of war, Hezbollah is holding off an Israeli invasion, and Yemen has successfully reshaped global shipping lanes with its own power projection. Iran just carried out the largest single day ballastic missile strike in history, has joined BRICS, and negotiated a détente with Saudi Arabia. How exactly is it getting less powerful?
Here is an opinion poll from a country that has not experienced the phenomenon of “hasbara”
The vast majority of those who took part in Maskina’s new survey for the association Iceland-Palestine say they sympathize more with the cause of Palestine than with Israel.
Participants were asked whether they sympathized more with the cause of Palestine or Israel, or equally with both.
The responses indicated that 72.5% sympathized more with the Palestinian cause than with Israel.
