The thirty-whatever thousand number is direct deaths that can be observed and counted up, I.e. a vast undercount of the actual number.
The Lancet determined a couple of months ago that you could at that point conservatively estimate about 186,000 dead, 7.9% of the population. Conditions haven’t been improving in the couple months since that happened and it was a conservative estimate anyway, so I said 10%. The truth is there’s a lot of uncertainty, it could be higher or lower than that, but saying it’s 1.5% is definitely wrong.
Is your impression that the Lancet just has someone speculate on things and then write down whatever, and that’s what they publish? Why would a professionally arrived at and peer reviewed estimate, based on the best available information and with an explanation of where it comes from, not be preferable to the absolute minimum lower bound?
Why is the number of “verified” deaths relevant? I’m interested in the number of deaths. It’s impossible to know that number for sure, of course, but if you are one of those people that died, but your death wasn’t verified, you’re still dead. Saying that the quite large number of people who died but whose death wasn’t verified “don’t count” or something is obvious nonsense.
And the Gaza Strip population was 2.23 million in 2023. 186000 / 2230000 = 8%. Where are you getting 4%?
You and Lancet seem to use a “Gaza strip population” to inflate the number and make it look higher than it is. My number comes from the total population of Palestine people of both Gaza and West Bank.
The number of verified deaths should be relevant. It seems disrespectful not to. Every speculated death should be verified. I’m sure there is a way to verify.
It is possible for the Lancet to be biased in one way or another yes. It is possible sure. There have been credible orgs who have questioned this Lancet estimate.
Help me out here. If I start bombing Philadelphia, and I kill 10% of the city, is it relevant that Philadelphia is part of the United States and does that make the 10% number suddenly wrong?
You’re sure there is a way to verify, huh. Well hey, you should go to Gaza and help them verify. I am sure it would be easy once you’re down there, helping them dig out families or schoolrooms from under the rubble and count 1, 2, 3, okay we got 4 corpses in this one. They’re verified now so they count. Boy, only a few hundred thousand houses to go, should be done in no time. Hey guys where is the water fountain? I’m getting thirsty, and when is lunch coming?
I am mostly done; you don’t need to tell me how biased the Lancet is famous for being, or who are these unnamed orgs who are questioning its credibility.
And yes every body found is counted and attempted to be verified by hospital morgues.
What bills? What banks? What hospitals do you think are operating in Gaza right now? Who is digging up every destroyed house and carting away every corpse, to what functioning morgue?
There are 12 hospitals operating in Gaza right now. In what reality do you think they’re spending their resources on counting bodies already dead that someone transported there (for what to happen to them)?
Fuckin bills… yeah, they just fire up their home computers and pay the electric bill, and if they don’t, someone knows they’re dead. It’s all real straightforward.
Yes, they’re excellent under pretty grim conditions. However, they only count (and only attempt to count) directly verified deaths, which obviously is the lower bound on the deaths and not the actual number. The Lancet article explains this.
Didn’t we talk about this already? It seems like we did and now you’re pretending not to understand verified versus unverified deaths.
You do not seem to understand how peer review let alone scientific research works and what kind of rigor is required to get your research published in an A* journal and I’ll leave it at that.
Because that’s… not the estimate that the most accurate process they can come up with leads to?
This sorta reminds me of conversations I’ve had with Trump supporters, where the very idea that you could evaluate a source and one could be more believable than another for reasons other than ideology, (like that one is trying to get the truth and one isn’t), is alien to them.
I mean this person has absolutely no idea what they’re talking about if they think journalists publish in The Lancet just because it’s called a journal so I think any discussion is absolutely pointless.
I don’t understand why some people think that the death count is 40K. That number was made by the Palestinian health ministry and they are very accurate… but it wasn’t updated because all their facilities have been destroyed. They act like somehow it stopped there just like that.
The lancet is not fucking around with their numbers.
The thirty-whatever thousand number is direct deaths that can be observed and counted up, I.e. a vast undercount of the actual number.
The Lancet determined a couple of months ago that you could at that point conservatively estimate about 186,000 dead, 7.9% of the population. Conditions haven’t been improving in the couple months since that happened and it was a conservative estimate anyway, so I said 10%. The truth is there’s a lot of uncertainty, it could be higher or lower than that, but saying it’s 1.5% is definitely wrong.
It’s not definitely wrong. It’s the number of verified deaths. Speculation is speculation. Also 186,000 dead would be 4% of the population.
?
Is your impression that the Lancet just has someone speculate on things and then write down whatever, and that’s what they publish? Why would a professionally arrived at and peer reviewed estimate, based on the best available information and with an explanation of where it comes from, not be preferable to the absolute minimum lower bound?
Why is the number of “verified” deaths relevant? I’m interested in the number of deaths. It’s impossible to know that number for sure, of course, but if you are one of those people that died, but your death wasn’t verified, you’re still dead. Saying that the quite large number of people who died but whose death wasn’t verified “don’t count” or something is obvious nonsense.
And the Gaza Strip population was 2.23 million in 2023. 186000 / 2230000 = 8%. Where are you getting 4%?
That’s four specific questions I’m asking.
You and Lancet seem to use a “Gaza strip population” to inflate the number and make it look higher than it is. My number comes from the total population of Palestine people of both Gaza and West Bank.
The number of verified deaths should be relevant. It seems disrespectful not to. Every speculated death should be verified. I’m sure there is a way to verify.
It is possible for the Lancet to be biased in one way or another yes. It is possible sure. There have been credible orgs who have questioned this Lancet estimate.
Help me out here. If I start bombing Philadelphia, and I kill 10% of the city, is it relevant that Philadelphia is part of the United States and does that make the 10% number suddenly wrong?
You’re sure there is a way to verify, huh. Well hey, you should go to Gaza and help them verify. I am sure it would be easy once you’re down there, helping them dig out families or schoolrooms from under the rubble and count 1, 2, 3, okay we got 4 corpses in this one. They’re verified now so they count. Boy, only a few hundred thousand houses to go, should be done in no time. Hey guys where is the water fountain? I’m getting thirsty, and when is lunch coming?
I am mostly done; you don’t need to tell me how biased the Lancet is famous for being, or who are these unnamed orgs who are questioning its credibility.
Removed by mod
What bills? What banks? What hospitals do you think are operating in Gaza right now? Who is digging up every destroyed house and carting away every corpse, to what functioning morgue?
There are 12 hospitals operating in Gaza right now. In what reality do you think they’re spending their resources on counting bodies already dead that someone transported there (for what to happen to them)?
Fuckin bills… yeah, they just fire up their home computers and pay the electric bill, and if they don’t, someone knows they’re dead. It’s all real straightforward.
I am done now
I don’t think you should speculate so much.
You joke and speculate but the Gaza health ministry numbers have always been reliable.
Yes, they’re excellent under pretty grim conditions. However, they only count (and only attempt to count) directly verified deaths, which obviously is the lower bound on the deaths and not the actual number. The Lancet article explains this.
Didn’t we talk about this already? It seems like we did and now you’re pretending not to understand verified versus unverified deaths.
You seriously just joked about how they count the casualties. That’s wicked work.
You do not seem to understand how peer review let alone scientific research works and what kind of rigor is required to get your research published in an A* journal and I’ll leave it at that.
When journalists and peer-review get a more accurate number of deaths than… The Gaza health ministry ran by the government of Gaza.
Okay.
I said it before. Why don’t we just say 500 thousand dead why be so conservative? Why don’t we even say it’s a million dead!
Because that’s… not the estimate that the most accurate process they can come up with leads to?
This sorta reminds me of conversations I’ve had with Trump supporters, where the very idea that you could evaluate a source and one could be more believable than another for reasons other than ideology, (like that one is trying to get the truth and one isn’t), is alien to them.
I mean this person has absolutely no idea what they’re talking about if they think journalists publish in The Lancet just because it’s called a journal so I think any discussion is absolutely pointless.
Yes it is the estimate it lead to. They said they were being very conservative with that number and it could even be as much as 15x higher.
The Gaza health ministry has always been accurate in their numbers.
Yeah… and the health ministry has been unable to update their stuff due to being bombed out… do you even listen to yourself?
They literally released an updated death count today. 39,653 as of today.
What are you talking about “unable to update stuff due to being bombed out”? Literally. You make things up.
Journalists publishing in the lancet and doing peer review? I rest my case.
I don’t understand why some people think that the death count is 40K. That number was made by the Palestinian health ministry and they are very accurate… but it wasn’t updated because all their facilities have been destroyed. They act like somehow it stopped there just like that.
The lancet is not fucking around with their numbers.
The Palestine health ministry announces an updated death toll nearly everyday. What. Are. You. Talking. About.
The rate it increases is not as consistent with the rate of bombing because they’re less able to retrieve and count bodies.