Image is of Cuba’s National People’s Power Assembly.


The most recent geopolitical news around Cuba is the arrival this week of four Russian vessels, including a nuclear submarine - not carrying any nukes, (un)fortunately - to Havana. This will, in Putin’s words, merely be a visit celebrating historical ties and no laws are being broken. Nonetheless, it’s not hard to imagine how American politicians and analysts are taking the news, especially as it comes shortly after Russia promised an “asymmetrical” response to further NATO involvement in Ukraine (notably, officially allowing the use of US weapons such as missiles in Russia, albeit in a small part of Russian territory, near the border).

Meanwhile, China has been increasingly co-operating with Cuba to overcome the economic hardship created by American sanctions. China has recently re-allowed direct flights to Cuba and has recently donated some small photovoltaic plants as part of an initiative to eventually boost the Cuban energy grid by 1000 MW - and any electrical expansion helps as Cuba is plagued by blackouts which last most of the day. Additionally, the EU has made meaningful contributions to Cuba’s energy situation too, with large solar installations. Hopefully, the Belt and Road Initiative will help preserve the Cuban revolution against reactionary forces as the power of US sanctions wanes. The proximity of Cuba to the United States makes this much more challenging than it would be for countries elsewhere, however. Similarly to the situation in Mexico, it seems unlikely that the US’s influence over Cuba will massively diminish for decades to come unless there is a catastrophic internal collapse in the American authoritarian regime.

The Havana Syndrome will continue until American morale declines.


The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you’ve wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don’t worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is Cuba! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]@hexbear.netOPM
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    Financial Times: Russia overtook US as gas supplier to Europe in May

    Blah blah blah, context and quotes at the start, the meat of the article is here:

    The US overtook Russia as a supplier of gas to Europe in September 2022, and has since 2023 accounted for about a fifth of the region’s supply. But last month, Russian-piped gas and LNG shipments accounted for 15 per cent of total supply to the EU, UK, Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, according to data from ICIS. LNG from the US made up 14 per cent of supply to the region, its lowest level since August 2022, the ICIS data showed.

    The reversal comes amid a general uptick in European imports of Russian LNG despite several EU countries pushing to impose sanctions on them. Russia in mid-2022 stopped sending gas through pipelines connecting it to north-west Europe, but continues to provide supplies via pipelines through Ukraine and Turkey. Flows in May were affected by one-time factors, including an outage at a major US LNG export facility, while Russia sent more gas through Turkey ahead of planned maintenance in June. Demand for gas in Europe also remains relatively weak, with storage levels near record highs for this time of year.

    The reversal was “not likely to last”, said Marzec-Manser of ICIS, as Russia would in the summer be able to ship LNG to Asia via its Northern Sea Route. That was likely to reduce the amount sent to Europe, while US LNG production had picked up again, he said. “Russia has limited flexibility to hold on to this share [in Europe] as demand [for gas] rises into next winter, whereas overall US LNG production is only growing with yet more new capacity coming to the global market by the end of the year,” he added. The transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia also comes to an end this year, putting at risk flows through the route.

    the US can’t even subjugate their vassals correctly. good god.

      • IzyaKatzmann [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        hm doesn’t there need to be gas from ru going in to keep enough industry to generate enough revenue for the ghouls to take? like im thinking this fits nicely as part of the game plan… oil and gas outside of ru could profit more but that mihgt come at a cost to military industrial complex & their customers.

        for the moderate term there is even by us and eu more conflict expected so compromising on gas with ru is fine as it services that goal i think

  • carpoftruth [any, any]@hexbear.netM
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    There was a western news story recently(last couple weeks) about a journalist going with a ukrainian unit and seeing a bunch of pensioners and old men. There were several good photographs of the soldiers. Does anyone have the link?

  • SoyViking [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    Here are some quotes from my country’s government broadcaster about the west’s Ukraine summit in Switzerland:

    … large parts of the word stands behind Ukraine in the war against Russia while Russia today looks even more isolated

    Even though several important countries made themselves noticed by not being present the summit has shown a solid global support for Ukraine

    That [the absence of BRICS] doesn’t change that a massive number of the world’s countries has now sent a clear message that they back Ukraine in the struggle that once a peace agreement is to be signed it should be based on Russian withdrawal and that Ukraine’s terrirtory should be what it was before Russia attacked

    The purpose of the summit was to begin a proper peace process where all participating nations could present ideas on how to work towards a lasting peace in Ukraine.

    About the Russia peace offer:

    But his [Putin’s] criteria for peace can best be described as an insult to the Ukrainians and the proposal was also blankly rejected by the summit’s participants.

    No wonder westoids think like they do when this is the reality that is presented to them.

    • wheresmysurplusvalue [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      large parts of the world stand behind Ukraine in the war against Russia

      But not as many large parts as those who don’t fall in line behind the NATO line.

      while Russia today looks even more isolated

      8 billion minus 1 golden billion nets you into negative support, this is peak westerner arithmetic

      The purpose of the summit was to begin a proper peace process where all participating nations could present ideas on how to work towards a lasting peace in Ukraine.

      Didn’t these business major failsons learn in their first semester that a meeting is pointless without all the necessary stakeholders?

      • BobDole [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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        Didn’t these business major failsons learn in their first semester that a meeting is pointless without all the necessary stakeholders?

        If there’s one thing business majors fucking love it’s pointless meetings

    • ... large parts of the word stands behind Ukraine in the war against Russia while Russia today looks even more isolated
      
      Even though several important countries made themselves noticed by not being present the summit has shown a solid global support for Ukraine
      

      Sure buddy all your friends are coming you just wait any second now

        • zed_proclaimer [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          Not all, and those that do generally have lower returns from price increases. It’s built into the value of the stock (a company that pays out regular dividends to its holders will make less net profit, and thus will not grow in value as rapidly. A company that instead uses that money towards expansion into new markets, or in PR advertising hype around themselves, will rocket up in price faster. See: Amazon or Tesla vs. a stable dividend stock like Johnson & Johnson)

          High risk-high return venture capital stuff also doesn’t entail dividends usually once they go public. It’s more a pump and dump short term shuffle that gets done with startups.

    • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      Others points are good but I would also add that housing is low risk compared to stocks, and also low effort. You can buy any property and it will go up in value unless there’s a housing market crash (then everyone’s fucked). You can’t do that with any stock. One requires constant effort too while the other does not, it just provides passive income.

    • Kieselguhr [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      In some countries it is also much easier to cheat taxes on rent than on dividends.

      And people instinctually know that real estate has use value as well, while stocks only have exchange value.

      Anyway, if you inherit some money stock/bonds are slightly better, because being a landlord is the worst. But that’s just ethics, not business.

      • mkultrawide [any]@hexbear.net
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        A lot of countries also don’t have very developed, sophisticated, or liquid equities markets. A lot of such countries, such as China, tend to have a culture of individuals investors using real estate as a form of savings/investment.

      • i may or may not have had dark thoughts like ‘i could exploit all of the racist genocide-supporters in my area for profit and they would love me for it’ due to recent unplanned emergency expenses, but i’m probably better off materially and spiritually just being broke for a while and leaving any stocks i may or may not have alone since theres no way i will survive old age otherwise as a chronically unemployed failgremlin

      • IzyaKatzmann [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        Oo is it cuz there are also incentives like mortgages where banks lend out a home it’s paid off (owned by the bank and bourgeois at the end of the day anyways) which also made real estate available?

    • mkultrawide [any]@hexbear.net
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      IIRC, REITs have outperformed the S&P 500 by 2-4% for the past decade on an annualized basis. A big part of the reason is leverage and the ability to borrow against real estate assets. Regular investors are highly unlikely to be able to buy a stock on margin with just 20% or less of the total asset value.

      Let’s say you buy a rental $1M rental property with 20% down ($200K) and then turn around and rent it out. In theory, that $200k is all the investor should end up paying themsevles, and the other $800K will be paid by the tenants. In 15 years, the investor owns a $1M asset (not accounting for asset appreciation) that also generates regular income that they only paid $200K for. They quadrupled their investment over the life of the mortgage.

      • dualmindblade [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        Or suppose you just buy the place outright, then 60-80% of the rent depending on how stingy you are and tax rate is just profit, you need not make any gains on the real estate at all, you’re in the black the whole time on paper should you ever need to secure a loan, and in a 10-20 years you have a property plus the initial cash you invested. Probably the least efficient but also least risky way to go about it, you can always midway between the two strategies depending on risk tolerance, landlording is good business!

    • healthkick@hexbear.net
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      It’s not actually a well-founded belief that stocks outperform real estate.

      The value of real estate rises slower than stocks but you also benefit from rental income and it’s easier / cheaper to leverage real estate since it’s value is much more consistent, which amplifies returns. These factors, its consistency and low risk profile, mean you can leverage and own twice as much for more than half the rate of return.

      Also while stocks do well over 50-100 year timeframes, there are frequently 10-20 year periods of flat or negative returns. Evidently the big money see us entering one of those periods and is fleeing stocks for real estate.

    • Barx [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      People become landlords so they can pay their own mortgage with other people’s money. It’s a pretty reliable way to turn money into more money with no work. Even easier than owning the means of production. Just grift off of rent. There are also big tax incentives for buying a second or third home. You can definitely do better than the stock market being a petty landlord.

    • RyanGosling [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      Short term profits and everyone needs a place to live. You dont need to read a 100 page report and consult the economics high priests to evaluate risk, you just run a credit report on a potential buyer and see he has a high credit score, decent stable job, and you can guarantee to make money as long as they’re under your contract. At least in America, there’s also “american dream” brain. You can pretend you’re a small business owner and entrepreneur even though all you do is hassle people for money. Owning a second property is probably the easiest way to get into this delusion because you kind of just need money

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    My dad has some fabulous brainworms and talking to him is like staring into a maelstrom of western nastiness interspersed with a few inexplicably sane ideas that does not fit into any of the rest.

    • Large parts of Sweden is ruled by cartoonishly brutal Muslim gangs
    • Muslims and Africans should be ethnically cleansed from the west
    • Muslims and Africans who can not be deported should be worked to death in camps
    • However, Nazis are ridiculous morons, and the rise of the AfD is concerning
    • The GDR was brutally looted in the 1990’s
    • People are voting AfD because the established politicians have not solved the real problems. The real problem is the existence of non-white people
    • Meloni and le Pen are okay though because they’re not fascists
    • It was a mistake to create “Israel”, they should have given the Jews Schleswig-Holstein instead
    • “Israel” is a democracy which means they’re good
    • “Israel” is incredibly racist
    • Palestinians should “negotiate” instead of doing armed resistance. They should “make themselves useful” for America and maybe offer them access to natural resources.
    • If Khamas wins it will be much worse for Palestinians than today because then they will live under “a Muslim dictatorship like in Iran” which is worse than getting bombed
    • Wokeness has gone too far
    • Conservative catholics are nasty, their theatrical forms of worship is off-putting and they’re driving people away from the church
    • The Donbas should never have been part of Ukraine
    • However, “we can not allow” Russia to win in Ukraine
    • Ukraine is going to win the war once the west decides to take it seriously and gives them all the good gear they have been holding back until now.
    • China is more scary than Russia because the Russians are primitive
    • China is doing imperialism by offering countries material benefits. This is worse than the western way of forcing themselves on the global south.
    • Western democracy is precious and shows how civilised we are, however all western politicians he can think of are corrupt arseholes.

    I believe him to be a completely ideologically representative sample of the average westerner.

    • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]@hexbear.netOPM
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      this is entirely incoherent obviously but there are a lot worse people out there even if you don’t count the outright fascists (or alt-right or whatever the Nazis are branding themselves as nowadays). well, maybe not “worse”, but even less informed

      like, if a westerner even has opinions on geopolitics and isn’t just in a hedonically depressed treat-addled stupor then that’s what counts as “informed”. to a certain extent I understand the desire to just stay out of shit and try and survive and grill but that position of not caring is only made possible by their position as a member of the golden billion, supported by the exploitation of 7 billion below them, so I still have a lingering dislike of it. they don’t have to care all the time - and I think deliberately and constantly exposing yourself to footage of atrocities (usually for the sake of “staying informed” or “bearing witness to suffering” inevitably in some culturally Christian sense) is counterproductive if it makes you into a doomer who is incapable of reasoned analysis and most importantly, action. Once you’ve decided you’ve seen enough that you know Israel should be destroyed and Zionism purged, there’s no need to watch the videos of hundreds of people dying in an airstrike. But like, they should care at least a little, hopefully enough to overcome their alienation and make connections to any decent groups in their communities.

    • ziggurter [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      IDK the actual ethnic cleansing parts are pretty out there and fringe. I don’t think I’d go so far as to call them ideologically representative. Sure, the political policies people tolerate will go so far, but if actually confronted about whether they’d be okay with it, most people would at least reject that end result, and might even start to confront the conditions that would lead to it…ideologically even if not motivated enough to get out there and throw their bodies in the way.

      Anyway, I feel ya on having close relations with these kinds of brainworms. It’s…trying at best, even if the contradictions and shear cartoonishness can be amusing at times.

  • JamesConeZone [they/them]@hexbear.net
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    I am not ready for the absolute wanking of Carter’s image after he dies. I don’t care if he was the “least violent” US president, he’s a mass murderer! I am glad he attempted penance the rest of his life and called Israel an apartheid state, but he was a fucking rube used to overthrow communism and crush working people and willingly went along with it. I will piss peanut farmer piss directly on his fucking grave

  • Alaskaball [comrade/them]@hexbear.netM
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    https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-azov-brigade-us-arms-ban-lifted-russia-1913372

    Nazi commander tells journalists they will use U.S provided weapons effectively.

    Ukraine’s Azov Brigade Sends Direct Message to US After Arms Ban Lifted

    Ukraine’s Azov Brigade will “prove the effectiveness” of the U.S.’ decision to lift a long-standing ban on providing weapons to the unit, according to the brigade’s commander.

    See, I wasn’t lying

    “We will justify the responsibility entrusted to us, and with our discipline, resilience and bravery in battle, we will prove the effectiveness of this decision,” Colonel Denys Prokopenko said in a statement posted to social media on Saturday.

    pigmask-off

    Earlier this week, the U.S. State Department reversed a decision made back in 2014 to stop the Ukrainian brigade receiving American weapons.

    Hmm I wonder what happened back in 2014 thinking-about-it

    The move comes as Ukraine, despite a number of successes in the Black Sea against Moscow’s naval fleet, struggles to hold off incremental but steady Russian advances in eastern Ukraine.

    Lol they gotta fit in some cope somewhere to deal with the constant stream of Ls from the frontlines.

    As military aid from Washington dried up earlier this year, deep anxieties settled in over the supply of weapons and ammunition to the Ukrainian front lines. The U.S. then passed a long-awaited military aid package in late April.

    Jerk-offs not even mentioning all that sweet genocide material’s being redirected to the fascists in Israel so they can be used on people that can’t defend themselves, as the bombs and guns were designed to be used for.

    The Azov Brigade rose out of the volunteer Azov Battalion, with its roots in far-right and ultranationalist ideology. The fighters were on the front lines fighting pro-Moscow separatists in Ukraine from 2014; the battalion’s founders were accused of having neo-Nazi sentiments.

    Bite your tongue and drown in your own blood.

    The brigade’s current members have rejected these ties, distancing themselves from the battalion’s reputation since the outbreak of full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022. The brigade is now a part of Ukraine’s National Guard, and has been lauded as one of the most effective fighting forces, noted particularly for its role in battling Russian forces in the Moscow-controlled southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol.

    Their virulence has spread through the entire state.

    Also they’re the most effective nazi brigade in eating shit since ww2.

    The Kremlin has repeatedly attempted to justify its invasion by claiming a “neo-Nazi regime” is in charge in Kyiv. This has been emphatically rejected by Ukraine and the international community.

    international-community-1international-community-2

    “Such a sudden change in Washington’s positions shows that they stop at nothing in their attempts to suppress Russia, using Ukraine and the Ukrainian people as a tool in their hands,” Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said in remarks referring to the State Department’s decision, as reported by Russian state media earlier this week. The U.S. is “ready even to flirt with neo-Nazis,” he added.

    I wonder how the journos were reporting on Ukraine prior to the war. They certainly weren’t saying Ukraine had a nazi problem, nosiree.

    “I would like to congratulate all the soldiers of the 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov and the entire civilized world on the victory over Russian propaganda,” Prokopenko said on Saturday.

    I guess everyone that says otherwise are uncivilized. Something something Garden and jungle.

    An unnamed State Department spokesperson told the BBC that “Russian disinformation” had tried to “conflate” the current Azov Brigade with “a militia formed to defend Ukraine against Russia’s invasion in 2014,” or the Azov Battalion.

    Didn’t know reality was Russian disinformation. But what do I know, it isn’t as if me and my party hasn’t been keeping close tabs on this for over a decade now.

    Under the U.S.’ “Leahy Law,” the Washington government cannot use funds to help foreign security forces when there is “credible information” suggesting the unit has committed gross violations of human rights.

    Publicly.

    “Eligibility for U.S. assistance will not only increase Azov’s combat effectiveness, but, most importantly, will help save the lives and health of the brigade’s personnel,” the brigade said in a statement on Tuesday.

    At the cost of Ukrainian and Russian conscripts and civilians of both countries. Giving nazis arms historically is a very bad idea.

    “This is a new page in the history of our unit,” the unit added. “Azov is becoming more professional and more effective in defending Ukraine against the invaders.”

    God willing, a page shy of a bitter and conclusive end to your unit.

    The Azov Brigade has not yet received U.S. weapons, Azov’s deputy commander, Lieutenant Colonel Sviatoslav Palamar, told The Washington Post on Tuesday.

    And may they continue to not receive any and continue to die violent and painful deaths

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      An unnamed State Department spokesperson told the BBC that “Russian disinformation” had tried to “conflate” the current National Socialist German Worker’s Party with “a militia formed to defend Germany against the Judeo-Bolshevik invasion in 1933,” or the National Socialist Worker’s Party of Germany.

    • Rojo27 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      The brigade’s current members have rejected these ties, distancing themselves from the battalion’s reputation since the outbreak of full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022. The brigade is now a part of Ukraine’s National Guard, and has been lauded as one of the most effective fighting forces, noted particularly for its role in battling Russian forces in the Moscow-controlled southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol.

      An unnamed State Department spokesperson told the BBC that “Russian disinformation” had tried to “conflate” the current Azov Brigade with “a militia formed to defend Ukraine against Russia’s invasion in 2014,” or the Azov Battalion.

      Pretty interesting how they still use so much Nazi iconography, but sure. They “rejected” the ideology by trying to, and failing spectacularly, to hide all of that. Everything we see is just Russian disinformation.

      • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]@hexbear.netOPM
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        has been lauded as one of the most effective fighting forces, noted particularly for its role in battling Russian forces in the Moscow-controlled southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol.

        we love our losers, folks

    • Yor [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      if Russia was actually as all encompassing and nefarious as libs think it is, the west wouldn’t stand a chance

    • Xx_Aru_xX [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      WWI and WWII: Africans being used by their European colonizers to die in war

      Today: Africans being used by their European colonizers to push propaganda online

    • What_Religion_R_They [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      “If Xi genuinely believes that the US actively seeks conflict with China over Taiwan, then concerns that Xi has created an information vacuum or is otherwise getting poor council from subordinates are, worryingly, true,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at CSIS, a think-tank.

      lol

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          entirely depends whether these kinds of think tanks actually have any power in the American state or if they’re purely for creating propaganda.

          luckily, America is fucked either way if they try and start shit with China, as Ansarallah has proven by beating the American navy

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              This is somewhat reddit analysis since in the scenario of US-China conflict starting with a Chinese kinetic action or blockade of Taiwan any US initiated disruption or blockade of ship routes from and towards China serious enough to hurt China enough to “back off” will have already completely collapsed the economies and even societies of Japan, Worst Korea and Phillipines (allies whose assistance let alone normal function the US counts on to be able to do any kind of successull defense of Taiwan), those of most of the “non-aligned” SEA countries and of course Taiwan. Not in a “recession” or “inflation” sense. If the US is able to mount any such successfull sea route choking to have China in crisis within idk 1 month ,most of the countries i mentioned will be imploding within 1-2 weeks. There is no way of doing one without doing the other and at that point you have lost both Taiwan and the entire region.

              There is a reason practicaly no US military think tank, war game or DoD analysis seriously considers SEA sea trade route blockading and disruption a strategy US is remotely likely to try. If it was a viable approach to “win the engagement” both sides would know it and it wouldnt be any kind of a secret, you would see it being seriously discussed and analyses by credible sources and people, not on YT videos and r/Noncredible defense

              Of course China wants to expand its inland routes and of course it wants to maximize its degree self sufficiency in energy , calories etc. In part because of course sea routes will be disrupted in any Taiwan related US-China conflict even if the US takes no action on that front. But it being used as a strategy by the US and being credibly able to hurt China both enough and quickly enough to cause a defeat before other factors do and without it fucking up every single ally and non ally in the erea first to a degree that will mean the US loses the region anyways

              If anything Ansarallah forcing the last line of missile and air defence used by US ships and managing at least a near hit or scare on USS Eisenhower with the 2nd tier Iranian missiles shows that in any hot conflict in SCS there would be 4 US carriers and 15 Destroyers in the bottom of the ocean by the time the first Chinese person goes hungry or without heating due to US initiated sea route disruption

            • Commiejones [comrade/them, he/him]@hexbear.net
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              1 month ago

              What? The only advantage that Ansarallah has is that it is fighting from its own land and has a million places to hide missiles and that was enough for them to win. Blockading your own costal waters is the exact opposite of using a navy to block international trade routes.

            • SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]@hexbear.netOPM
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              1 month ago

              China does also have one of (if not the) largest navies and airforces on the planet, though. I also think that blockading the Strait of Malacca in such a way that it doesn’t immediately crash the world economy, including the US’s, must be very difficult. Nordstream proves that Biden is capable of doing some sicko shit but that was also an explicit benefit to their own economy.

              There’s also the Arctic route if China is willing to play the long game and wait for a few years, if they can sufficiently motivate Russia to go all-in there (Putin is committing to making more icebreakers and such AFAIK though)

              I do agree though that global shipping routes are pretty fragile now though.