It’s kind of weird but Tottenham literally always overperform xG basically since it became a stat. Part of it was Kane, but Son is actually statistically a better finisher.
It’s an interesting counter for people who say that xG tells you who ‘should’ win a game, because this is more than a trend it’s almost an inevitability. In theory it’s no different to a team that has great creativity and crap finishing, but one will show up as a great team on xG and one won’t.
It’s still probably the best, simple metric for assessing a team’s quality at a glance. At the end of the day it shows you how well a team creates goal scoring opportunities and how it prevents goal conceding opportunities, everything else is down to shot stopping and finishing (in theory).
I think it’d be mostly fair to say it shows who ‘plays the best football’, less whether a team is actually effective at playing football.
Is there a difference between playing good football and playing effective football? Is a team that creates a lot of chances and can barely finish any of them any better than a team that creates few chances but can normally finish them?
It’s not just down to shot stopping and shooting. It’s also about the quality of the assists and the position of the defence.
I still agree it is the best simple metric to predict how teams will perform over a season. VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga for example will probably finish really high. I would bet top 6.
Absolutely, though aren’t assist quality and defensive positioning both factors that influence xG and xGA? That’s kind of my thinking when saying why it’s a good metric.
Not saying this as a biased spurs fan but considering he’s been with us 8 years and I could probably count on 1 hand the amount of “sitters” he’s missed, he’s an extremely clinical finisher. He just always scores when he gets a chance that you would expect him to score. There’s no other player I’d feel more comfortable running through on goal in a 1 on 1 situation
It’s kind of weird but Tottenham literally always overperform xG basically since it became a stat. Part of it was Kane, but Son is actually statistically a better finisher.
It’s an interesting counter for people who say that xG tells you who ‘should’ win a game, because this is more than a trend it’s almost an inevitability. In theory it’s no different to a team that has great creativity and crap finishing, but one will show up as a great team on xG and one won’t.
It’s still probably the best, simple metric for assessing a team’s quality at a glance. At the end of the day it shows you how well a team creates goal scoring opportunities and how it prevents goal conceding opportunities, everything else is down to shot stopping and finishing (in theory).
I think it’d be mostly fair to say it shows who ‘plays the best football’, less whether a team is actually effective at playing football.
Is there a difference between playing good football and playing effective football? Is a team that creates a lot of chances and can barely finish any of them any better than a team that creates few chances but can normally finish them?
It’s not just down to shot stopping and shooting. It’s also about the quality of the assists and the position of the defence.
I still agree it is the best simple metric to predict how teams will perform over a season. VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga for example will probably finish really high. I would bet top 6.
Absolutely, though aren’t assist quality and defensive positioning both factors that influence xG and xGA? That’s kind of my thinking when saying why it’s a good metric.
Son is a massive outlier when it comes to xG, most other players eventually regress to the mean.
Not saying this as a biased spurs fan but considering he’s been with us 8 years and I could probably count on 1 hand the amount of “sitters” he’s missed, he’s an extremely clinical finisher. He just always scores when he gets a chance that you would expect him to score. There’s no other player I’d feel more comfortable running through on goal in a 1 on 1 situation
Son is now overperforming his xG for the 8th season in a row, safe to say that he’s just that great.