SS: In response to an ultimatum by the The Economic Community of West African States (ecowas) that a military intervention would occur if the recent military coup was not overturned, other nations Mali and Burkina Faso vowed to step in to defend Niger in the event of a military intervention. These Sahel nations also faced military coups against nominally democratic incumbents. Ecowas nations have tried to show themselves as democratic bastions and have intervened in coups int he region before. By challenging the group, these autocratic nations are challenging the aspirations and legitimacy of their ability to affect change int the region. As more nations fall to coups and are plagued by extremism, regional powers and foreign interests may determine the long term stability of the region.

SS: In this article, the author argues for US and western policy to move more aggressively towards decoupling from China. The author argues that simply derisking and onshoring/friend shoring sensitive industries is not enough. Continuing to entangle with Chinese markets while they remain illiberal will only reduce the economic potential of the US and help prop up an authoritarian rival. Unless the US makes a much more thorough break it risks exposing its investors and citizens to economic backlash from an authoritarian regime seeking to upend its place in the world. It also discourages the emergence of a truly liberal and democratic economy in China.

SS: Russian has pulled out of the deal to ship Ukrainian grain citing issues with getting restrictions on its own agricultural and fertiliser exports lifted. It is unclear if this move will drive further food insecurity in the global south however, as other nations have stepped up their own production and export of grains. Europe has also been a majority purchaser of Ukrainian grains which adds more credibility to the Russian argument that poor nations will not suffer as much from halting Ukrainian grain shipments. How this plays out and how it effects global perception of Russia’s war in Ukraine is yet to be seen.

SS: Russian and Chinese forces are conducting joint military operations in the Sea of Japan. These types of drills aren’t uncommon, but show a commitment to increasing interoperability and cooperation with one another. It is unlikely that Russia and China will directly cooperate with one another in the event of conflict with an outside power, but strategic planning and synchronizing logistics may help each other in their respective conflicts.

SS: As geopolitical polarization increases, Iran and Russian cooperation also improves. Expanding their activities outside if Caspian weapons trading, Iran and Russia seek to pressure the US out if the Levant.

SS: Despite recent progress in bilateral relations, there is still a long way forward for the US in diminishing Russian influence over India. For the US weaning India off Russian weapons reduces Russian influence over India while also promoting interoperability with Western forces in the region. India is recieved more favorably compared to Pakistan and shares many of Washington’s concerns over China’s recent expansionist tendencies. For India, Washington may prove to be a more reliable supplier and a supplier of arms that are more effective compared to their Russian counterparts. This is especially noted after Russia’s performance in its war against Ukraine and subsequent supply chain melt down that has left India struggling to catch up with routine shipments.

RIF for kbin

in fairness, these rules are being skirted within the EU constantly. Bypassing checks and balances and overall centralization of power seems to be a theme for many nations. Admitting Turkey without both fixing the EU’s internal rules/structure to better allow for reform and compliance to values as well as Turkey getting in line with EU standards on issues like human rights, judicial independence, freedom of expression, etc.

I’m not sure if it will be in my life but I expect all these issues to eventually be rectified and integration to happen.

SS: In recent weeks, delays between the EU foreign ministry and China have been noted during to various external factors. This opinion piece notes that the facade of politeness between diplomatic exchanges is overshadowed by a fundamental disagreement between strategic views. China supports Russia and promotes a Russian narrative over the cause of the war in Ukraine. Similarly, European nations support the US in its tech trade war with China and against China in the Taiwan dispute. While these nations claim mutual interests in multiple geopolitical poles and independent strategies, they face an uncertain future as major policies are at odds.

SS: In a new move of shifting goal posts, Turkish president Erdogan has linked Swedish accession with renewed talks if Turkish EU membership. This is expected to be aimed at domestic audiences as Sweden is already covered by mutual defense treaties with neighbors and is closely aligned with NATO members. It is not expected to integrate Turkey into the EU anytime soon as it would disturb the balance of power within the alliance. Rapid EU expansion resulting in a debt crisis and political instability within the Union have also made members more wary of bringing in new members without heavy vetting.

SS: Different opinions and narratives are shared at the 2023 SCO meeting in India. As each party speaks about their goals and views on global affairs, the security group admits Iran and announces plans to bring Belarus into the organization.

from what the article says, it will be a licensing requirement issued by the PRC. How they enforce it will be interesting. There is speculation that they might just block suppliers of components for US defense companies and exclude civillian applications. This would severely slow down GaAs and GaN radars, advanced components for ships, planes, thaad, etc. but wouldnt necessarily upend global supply chains for solar panels or the next iPhone.

SS: In an escalation of the chip trade war going on between the US and China, the PRC has issued limits and new regulations on the exports of specific metals used in chip manufacturing and other tech sectors. China supplies a majority of the global supply of gallium - up to 94%. While it is unclear to what extent Beijing will reduce exports, it is clear that that the trade conflict will only continue to escalate. These moves come amidst a global effort to reduce strategic vulnerabilities in their supply chains.

SS: In an attempt to reduce the opioid epidemic The US has reached out to Mexico and China to help stem the flow of fentanyl into the country. This comes after the 2022 decision of China to stop support in this endeavor following Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

SS: Driven by demand for cheap oil, many Indian firms have begun payment to Russia in the Chinese Yuan. Sanctions placed on Russia have caused many nations to seek less reliance in the dollar but this move seems to be made more out of convenience than doctrine. Talks between Russia and India over trade in Rupee-Ruble have lagged as Russia has accumulated billions in the Indian currency and lacks areas in which to use it. Dedollarization and a BRICs backed currency are expected topics at thr upcoming 2023 BRICs summit in South Africa.

while we may not like Erdogan, Turkey is a critical component of the alliance. Turkey controls the Bosphorus and thus movement between the Black and Mediterranean seas. The Turkish arms industry has also blossomed in recent years and can do well to bring countries that traditionally don’t buy Western arms into a position where they might (cross compatibility of systems). Turkey also provides a foothold in the Middle East as well as a place for NATO to eventually expand into the Caucuses and even the Caspian should it choose.

SS: Erdogan continues to delay Sweden’s admission into NATO over concerns about support for Kurdish nationalist groups within Sweden. This comes at a time of enhanced aggression from adversaries and off thr heels of Finland’s accession into the group. While there might not be as pressing a need to get Sweden into NATO with Finland now creatin buffer along the Russian border, Turkish demands still cause irritation among NATO members.

SS: The world’s largest single deposit of phosphate rich rocks has been discovered in Norway. This comes at a time where major nations with reserves are starting to place export restrictions. This new deposit can breathe life into global electric product industries as well as agriculture. Norway is not a member of the EU.

if you dont mind me asking, what are your thoughts on the falklands/malvinas dispute? I don’t interact with too many Argentines so I’m curious about if it is an important issue over there

SS: In this article, author Simon Tissdall argues that the world is allowing for the normalization of genocide. Compared to American and Australian genocides of natives or Nazi genocides during World War 2, modern perpetrators are not being held accountable. The author argues that we can still make “never again” stick and reverse this trend of genocide normalization, but it will require the international community actually holding those responsible accountable. Until then the world can expect to see more tragedy. 20 years after hundreds of thousands were murdered and millions displaced in Sudan the Janjaweed ride again.