A Reddit Refugee. Zero ragrets.

Engineer, permanent pirate, lover of all things mechanical and on wheels

moved here from lemmy.one because there are no active admins on that instance.

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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: December 22nd, 2023

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  • Yeah that study is probably “true” but very myopic. I believe I commented on this the last time it was posted.

    Sure, total co2/ch4 emissions is likely higher. Liquefying and transporting LNG isn’t energy free, while coal is typically burned closer to where it’s mined. I get that’s probably the tact they’re trying to take, fossil fuel still bad and don’t let LNG get too greenwashed.

    HOWEVER. The study and article seems to intentionally completely ignore all the secondary emissions of coal. Tallying “emissions” for a picture of true environmental impact is way way way more than just X tons of co2. Burned coal creates a massive amount of atmospheric ash and particulate that is chock full of heavy metals, literal radioactivity, and sulfur/nox that generates acid rain. The tailings from mining and the fly ash from burning is also incredibly toxic and destroys all groundwater for miles and miles around it. It’s just one huge bad flaming lump of cancer that sanitizes entire ecosystems and reduces life expectancy by multiple decades in places where it is heavily used.

    Natural gas generates none of this, with the exception of fracking groundwater problems (which, is admittedly a problem, but still way less concentrated than the previously mentioned). A fuel stock of >95% CH4 with the remainder made up of water and longer chain hydrocarbons emits nothing but CO2 and water vapor. Also, combined cycle gas power plants have some of the highest end to end thermal efficiencies of any power plant ever built, which is another huge plus over coal.

    So no, it’s not perfect, and its still “bad”. but it is doing a fucking bang good job of not giving people cancer and getting a dirty 18th century energy source out of our modern society where it does not belong.











  • If all other things stay the same and SA starts punishing OPEC with production bumps, then yes 50 to 60/bbl is possible in the current balanced market. But these geopolitical risks are unpredictable and military action removing more production than SA could offset with it’s spare capacity would quickly drive it back to 100/bbl.

    SA wants OPEC members to believe the 50/bbl threat because OPEC/OPEC+ as a whole have done nothing but overproduce and ignore quotas for years and years, bolstering their own profits while SA tries to take up the slack by cutting. SA is sick and tired of being taken advantage of by their “friends” in the cartel (truely a Leopards Eating Faces moment). Opec members will be more likely to comply with quota demands if there is an imminent market crash.

    The US would want members to believe the 100/bbl war premium threat as that will keep reserves high and production on the market, as sellers will want to take immediate advantage of a spot market price spike, which in itself dulls the ultimate effect of said spike and prevents physical shortages that would be severely damaging to the US/OECD countries.

    Frankly the entire thing is a giant “¯\_(ツ)_/¯” so make sure your gas tank stays full and we’ll wait and see.