I’ve heard the Russian economy is overheating and is going to have major problems by mid 2025 (interest rates already 20+% and home mortgage rate have hit a peak at 40%). I figured that would mean that the Russian war machine would start having massive problems by the end of 2025.

But the way Russia is pushing so hard, after a Trump victory and expected US support withdrawal and pressure to negotiate, makes me think they are trying to begin negotiation on Day 1 of a Trump presidency. Which I would infer means they are in a worse position than I expected and could have massive war machine problems by mid 2025.

If Ukraine was then able to, and did continue, fighting until the end of 2025, they may start making major gains in the war against the broken Russian war machine. Putin may call a second mobilization wave to slow the Ukrainians but that may be counterproductive by causing general unrest and protestation against the war.

Revan. Star Wars Knights of the Old Republic.

Really seems like it has to be electronic interference. It happens everytime the drone gets close to the soldier.

On a potentially positive note, it seems that the Russians are running low on artillery systems (loss of ~25/day on a high casualty day compared to ~70/day months ago).

I believe euromaiden press estimates they have 21% of their total stock pile left and they field ~20% at a time. This would mean they have essentially no reserves left and field usage is now limited by production rates and refurbishment of equipment in bad shape.

It may be because they are running out of reserve Soviet equipment and are forced to rely on meat assaults to keep up the pressure.

I’ve noticed the number of artillery system destroyed per day is about half (~25-35/day) of what it was for most of the past year (~70/day).

Same with APCs, the number seems to have halved and the “vehicles and fuel tanks” number has risen to compensate. To me, that indicates the Russians are riding into battle on unarmed vehicles (motorcycles, golf carts, regular cars/trucks, etc.) and are more suseptible to becoming a casualty than earlier in the war.

If that were the case, the Russians pressure/assaults may not have increased as significantly as the casualty number increase would indicate.

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I suspect the storage facilities are close to being completed emptied of working or easily fixable pieces and all that’s left is scrap/spare part pieces.

They may be receiving, or could receive in the future, artillery pieces from allies (ex. NK) that could change their ability to keep up losses.

Regarding China, I don’t think China would militarily invade a stable Russia (not civil wared). I think it’s more likely they will economically dominate them, with the implicit threat of militarily/covert action if Russia tries and recover their economic sovereignty in those dominated regions.

This news site usually has a graph with the loss percentage of the initial total and how much of the initial total is active vs reserve.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/10/12/russo-ukrainian-war-day-962-north-korean-troops-train-in-russia-for-potential-ukraine-deployment/

To answer your question, the chart shows it to be ~6,120 total artillery systems left. At a loss of 50 a day (assuming they don’t tailor down their use as they lose availability [massive assumption]), they should completely run out in about 122 days / 4 months (~ February 2025).

Obviously, that is unlikely to happen and I expect that they will tailor down their use closer to their production rate (I don’t know what their production rate is) before the end of the year, as they completely run out of any reserves.

Do you mean Hellen Keller? Anne Frank was the girl living in the attic during nazi occupation in World War II. Helen Keller was blind and deaf and, to my recollection, wasn’t able to communicate until adulthood when a teacher came along to teacher sign language.

I think they probably ment to put special equipment’s “99” under vehicles and fuel tanks. Otherwise, they would have destroyed 3% of the total destroyed special equipment.

Relevant section:

The final season of Vi and Jinx’s story will be divided into three acts, with the first debuting on November 9. The second act will be available on November 16, and the third will be available on November 23.

Daily Octordle #947 8️⃣7️⃣ 6️⃣4️⃣ 🕚5️⃣ 9️⃣🕛 Score: 62

Looks like lower is better, but not sure how it’s calculated.

Internet says it is set to conclude on December 8, 2024, in Vancouver. So, after the election.

I believe she stated she is not going to make a response until after her tour finishes, to protect her fans.

Edit: Internet says the tour is set to conclude on December 8, 2024, in Vancouver (after the election).

With ferries and heavy rail over the Kerch Strait Bridge unlikely, it seems Russia is left with the new rail line being built through lower Ukraine (don’t know if its finished yet) and/or trucks across the bridge (not sure the volume it can accommodate). Seems like Crimean logistics are going to be constrained in the short term.

My recollection is that the ruble is restricted (partially/mostly?) from being traded by the Russian government. So, most of the ruble currency exchange is on the black market, which wouldn’t be what Google finance shows.

I semi recall reading something a year or so ago about the black market ruble value being half of the publicized value, so maybe what she is referencing is a recent significant drop in the black market ruble value.

I’m pretty sure the 3rd pre-war bridge was taken out (yesterday?). So, all Russia has left is the pontoon bridges (2?) and possibly one was taken out earlier today (1 left?).

To me, it seems Ukraine is trying to trap troops and equipment below the river and get a large personnel surrenders and equipment recovery.

I would add that you can swallow air to create the need to burp.

An example of this can be seen in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. All of Russia’s air defense was in use/active at the beginning of the war (no reserves). Since the start its estimated Russia has lost about a third of their air defense systems, leaving large sections of their territory undefended. Ukraine takes advantage of this to hit military and oil facilities deep in russia’s interior.

Ukraine on the other hand never had enough air defense to begin with and has had to cycle their air defense locations and develop innovative new methods to supplement their limit air defense capabilities.

Cool stuff. Article below:

KMC just launched two new versions of its potato-based gelling agent “Gelamyl” as a plant-based alternative to gelatin, each with its own unique properties and benefits.

KMC says that Gelamyl 625 is the first-ever gelling agent based on potato starch that can be dried at 25°C (compared to a typical 55°C) while retaining stability and a soft, chewy bite. Producers can use this variety as the sole gelling agent or a partial replacement for gelatin.

Meanwhile, Gelamyl 805 is for any “confectionery makers looking for new, innovative textures in entirely plant-based gummies.” It offers a consistently elastic, semi-firm texture.

KMC notes that the unique Gelamyl 805 makes it possible to produce anything from soft Haribo-like gummies to firm English “wine gums” and hard-surfaced fruit pastilles. (Due to E1414, a variety of modified starch not yet approved by the FDA, this variety is currently unavailable in the US.)

KMC published a white paper alongside the announcement explaining the benefits of using potato-based gelling agents over animal-derived ones. In this paper, the Danish ingredient manufacturer describes the three main benefits of choosing Gelamyl over competitors’ animal-derived or plant-based alternatives as sustainability, versatility, and inclusivity.

Locally sourced potatoes like those used by KMC are among the lowest-impact vegetables in the world, particularly when compared to “environmentally burdensome” gelatin.

In terms of versatility, KMC’s Gelamyl range is extensive, and each variety has its own binding and textural unique benefits. Speaking to the inclusivity of its product, KMC explains that opting for plant-based, allergen-friendly potato starch in place of animal-derived ingredients “offers inclusivity to all demographics,” regardless of diet and lifestyle.

In June, the company launched an Innovation Center to boost its production of plant-based ingredients. The company reported record-breaking sales of DKK 3.4 billion in 2023, and owners – all potato growers themselves – wanted to invest in the sector.