It said that in seats won by the Lib Dems “voters would explain that they were voting Lib Dem in these traditionally Tory strongholds because Ed Davey’s party just seemed more ‘normal’”.

Yes.

Archived version for those who want to read the article.

Democrats are good the economy. Republican are bad for the economy.

It’s amazing that republicans have managed to convince so many people otherwise.

$10 a month. I plan to cancel after the election.

Personally, Morris’ model at 538 had such a questionable take on Biden vs Trump it shook my faith in it. I still think it’s good as a polling aggregator, and its tools (such as the interactive map) are pretty solid, but I decided that $10 per month was acceptable to get access to a model I think has a more realistic take on the election.

538’s new model is untested, and for all I know it could be accurate. However, it still has some takes I find extremely unlikely.

Nate Silver’s model (in my opinion) paints a more realistic picture of what to expect; despite Harris’s qualifications and Democrats extremely high enthusiasm, it remains an uphill battle because of the electoral college.

This is what Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin has right now.

As always with polling predictions, it’s a big if. So, if the elections were to happen right now and Nate Silver’s model is completely accurate (it’s obviously not; no model is) then the results would be 303 Kamala Harris to 235 Donald Trump.

Screw Kari Lake. She’s an election denier.

“You’re going to have a hard time believing this, but so help me, I triple-checked it,” [Bill] Clinton began. “Since the end of the Cold War in 1989, America has created about 51 million new jobs. I swear I checked this three times. Even I couldn’t believe it. What’s the score? Democrats 50, Republicans one.”

Perhaps the greatest con the republican party ever pulled off was the notion that they are better for the economy than democrats.

Here is the archived version for those who want to read the article.

Reframing Trump’s proposed tariffs as a Trump Tax is a great move and will hopefully help everyday people realize that they’ll be paying more if Trump wins.

It’s basically a tax on everyone, especially the middle class and the poor class.

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Alright, now that 538 is back online, do we have any takes as to how accurate we think it is?

Is it spot on or reasonable? Or, is it still ridiculously wrong the way it was prior to Biden dropping?

Some notable lines:

“With this election, our nation has a precious, fleeting opportunity to move past the bitterness, cynicism and divisive battles of the past. A chance to chart a new way forward,” Ms Harris told a cheering arena filled with American flags and signs bearing her name. “I promise to be a president for all Americans.”

[…]

[…] “We are not going back.” Mostly, she struck an optimistic tone, in keeping with the festive energy of the night. […]

[…]

The speech shed some light on how Ms Harris is approaching the final ten weeks of the campaign. She referred to Hamas as “a terrorist organisation” and said she “will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself”. Yet she also described conditions in Gaza as “devastating”. Her solution, aimed at satisfying competing members of her coalition, was unsurprising: “Now is the time to get a hostage deal and ceasefire done.” Ms Harris is aiming to unite her party—from coastal leftists to midwestern moderates—while remaining as acceptable as possible to Trump-sceptical independents and Republicans. The policy portions of the speech were clearly designed to maximise political effect rather than lay out a detailed agenda. She spoke in defence of abortion rights and government-run pension programmes, while vaguely promising to “end America’s housing shortage” without explaining how.

[…] “I know we can live up to our proud heritage as a nation of immigrants—and reform our broken immigration system,” she said. “We can create an earned pathway to citizenship—and secure our border.”

[…] “But the consequences of putting Donald Trump back in the White House are extremely serious.” She warned of his “explicit intent” to imprison journalists and political opponents.

Democrats leaving the convention hall in Chicago were as enthusiastic as Republicans were at their own gathering in Milwaukee in July. Yet much can change in the coming weeks. The Trump campaign certainly hopes that the convention will be the peak of Ms Harris’s popularity, and may be betting that an imminent endorsement from Robert F. Kennedy junior […]

This article is mostly a critique of her speech (a great speech, in my opinion).

However, she has elaborated more on her policies elsewhere. For example, Harris wants to build 3 million new homes to help lower housing costs, was an early advocate for a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza, and has proposed making new pathways to improve and fix America’s immigration system.

Here is the archive link.

I am going to be so sad if we lose in November.

Seriously, Kamala hit it out of the park yesterday with her speech. Putting her next to Trump, I just don’t see how anyone could look at the two of them and then pick him.

Kamala isn’t just better symbolically, but she is also better on policy.

She was born to two immigrant parents who later divorced, and she was mostly raised by her single mother. Her family had to budget their money diligently to make ends meet. Contrast that with Trump, who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, always had the family chauffeur cater to his every need, and ultimately is the patriarch of a generationally wealthy family that views people like Harris as annoying upstarts inserting themselves where they don’t belong.

Their policies also reflect their upbringing; Trump’s policies empower people like himself; they make the rich richer, and make everyday Americans pay more by cutting government services. Harris’s policies empower everyday Americans, and make those who have far more money than they could ever spend in a lifetime pay their fair share.

I’m actually excited to vote for Kamala. Ending the Trump shitshow is an added bonus, but America will be genuinely better off and on a better path if she wins.

Edit: removed an extra word.

ಠ~ಠ

Yup. Polling at around 5%.

I would be shocked to see Virginia would flip; the DC metro area is heavily dependent on government jobs, and a lot of those jobs are threatened by Project 2025.