A lot of prepper content seems to wrongly focus on grand sudden events-Hollywood-style collapses of society or environment. The reality, from the fall of Rome to Lebanon this century, is that collapse is usually a slow crumbling where the things people rely on become less and less reliable.
A useful intuition pump is to do your threat modelling with two likely events that, if they happened separately, would only be inconveniences, but together pose a serious threat.
For example:
- Your kid is away at summer camp and there’s a gasoline supply shock.
- A storm washes out your road and your dad gets readmitted to the hospital.
- There’s a wildfire and your car battery is dead.
What are the two most likely inconveniences given your loved ones and where you live?
Prolonged Cold snap, and energy supply shortage. Climate change makes longer cold snaps more likely in the uk apparently.
Bad weather and power outage are probably the most likely combo in many areas. Contemplating this scenario encourages you to build alternative methods of creating heat/light.