They’re copying Nixon’s “Madman Theory”, where by being violent and unpredictable they can extract greater concessions from their opponents. This is your “De-Escalation through Escalation” they were talking about a while ago.
Israel now views this as an existential conflict and is trying to disable their opponents while they still have enough munitions to do so.
I have used this example before: imagine you have a revolver with six bullets - they will become obsolete and unable to deal any damage to your enemy in 10 years.
While you only have a 10% chance of killing your enemies right now, it will be 1% in 10 years time.
What will you do?
Do you use those bullets now hoping to deal at least some lasting damage to your enemies, or do you hoard them until nobody is afraid of them anymore?
For Zionists, this will be the end of their ideology, the end of their ethnostate project. What becomes of Zionism when it comes to that? It makes sense they have to deal damage now than later.
(The bullets are US/Israeli air superiority, and what will make it obsolete are modern Russian air defense systems that once supplied to Iran, will end Western air supremacy altogether in the Middle East)
After the Western sanctions on Russia during the start of the Ukraine war, Iran and Russia have moved much closer in military and technological cooperation and is currently very close to formalizing a comprehensive defense treaty between the two nations.
Iranian drones (Shahed) have already been used in Ukraine, and Russia has already obtained the licensing rights to manufacture their own domestic version (Geran-2), which has also been deployed on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Modern Russian air defense systems, in particular the S-400s, will neutralize NATO/Israeli air superiority against Iran.
The question is how fast Russia can manufacture these SAM batteries, since Russia already has its hands full at the moment. Ukraine, under the supervision of NATO, continues to lob rockets and missiles and launch drones into Russian territory (including along the Finnish-Russian border), which in turn forces Russia to deploy its air defense systems along vast stretch of its European border.
The delivery of the last two squadrons of S-400 that India ordered seven years ago, originally slated for delivery in 2023, had to be delayed until 2025. It’s clear that Russia is prioritizing its own air defenses against Ukraine and does not have the production level to export to other countries like Iran at the moment. So that will take years (also likely why NATO continues to force Russia to engage in Ukraine despite the fact that Ukraine can no longer win the war - it still serves its purpose of tying Russia from sending advanced military equipments to Iran and its allies in the Middle East).
S-400 is possibly the best AA system in the world that is in serial manufacturing (there’s also S-500 which is even better, but afaik still in testing). For comparison, in 2019 Iran shot down most modern US stealth drone worth 200 million with old Soviet missile from 60’s and using domestically produced radar and guidance system.
I wouldn’t call it “special” but the S-400, while far from perfect, is still leaps and bounds better than any other system in the world with a 400km weapon range. This is 4 times the range of US AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation (radar) missiles.
This is going to keep most non-stealth 4th generation planes (F-15s, F-16s) from high altitude bombing (even under heavy jamming) and force them to fly at low altitude which will subject them to short/intermediate range anti-air defense batteries and MANPADs. Integrated air defense systems (IADS) is about building layers of air defense complexes where their sensors and fire control systems are networked within the same platform, which is what made the Soviet/Russian system so good.
Remember on the first day of the Ukraine war when Russia turned on its S-400 radar near its southern border for a moment and shot down a Ukrainian Su-27 some 250km away in Kyiv (which then crashed into an apartment complex)? It’s that lethal for the non-stealth planes.
The F-35s are likely going to fare better but the S-400 radars are probably also powerful enough to detect the stealth aircrafts at certain range. This is pure speculation however because there hasn’t been any real involvement of F-35s on the battlefront yet.
They may see with the US risking getting into a war with Russia and wanting a war with China that their own time to pull the US into a conflict to settle the region’s problems in their favor using the might of the US is quickly drawing to a close and will likely not exist in a few years so why let a crisis go to waste when they can try and get the US to take out Iran and Hezbollah for them which would allow greater “isreal” to become a reality. It’s an expansionist mindset too. Also fascists gonna fascist.
The only way towards de-escalation is coming to the negotiating table with Hamas. Negotiating with Hamas sets a bad precedent and, in the long term, compromise’s the entity’s ability to keep Palestine down. Their economy is already severely compromised as it is, so I think that going out with some kind of last hurrah and trying to accomplish all their goals at once is probably more appealing than having to back down, recover, and attempt to do it all again a decade from now.
US is out here using WW3 to unify it’s own citizens who are currently heading towards civil war behind jingoistic wartime patriotism, while also being a huge boon to the US economy through wartime production.
The realpolitik ghoul reason would be that they’re trying to start a big enough war that the only way the US can secure its interests in the region is to get directly involved, saving Israel from the consequences of its other aggressions.
But I don’t think it’s actually realpolitik ghouls in charge, I think they’ve just got nazis at the helm, and nazis think that all problems can be solved by attacking the weak, and all people are weaker than them.
Does anyone here have a guess as to why Israel is trying to solo the entire
Arab worldMiddle East in the middle of an ongoing colonial uprising?I can think of two possibilities:
I hope they lose
Iran isnt in the arab world
The fuck, how did I just learn this today
deleted by creator
Brainbeam didn’t work
Yeah I’m already not looking forward to all the times I’m going to have to correct people referring to Iranians as “Arabs”
I have used this example before: imagine you have a revolver with six bullets - they will become obsolete and unable to deal any damage to your enemy in 10 years.
While you only have a 10% chance of killing your enemies right now, it will be 1% in 10 years time.
What will you do?
Do you use those bullets now hoping to deal at least some lasting damage to your enemies, or do you hoard them until nobody is afraid of them anymore?
For Zionists, this will be the end of their ideology, the end of their ethnostate project. What becomes of Zionism when it comes to that? It makes sense they have to deal damage now than later.
(The bullets are US/Israeli air superiority, and what will make it obsolete are modern Russian air defense systems that once supplied to Iran, will end Western air supremacy altogether in the Middle East)
Sorry to be daft, but what’s this Russia supplying Iran with air weapons thing?
After the Western sanctions on Russia during the start of the Ukraine war, Iran and Russia have moved much closer in military and technological cooperation and is currently very close to formalizing a comprehensive defense treaty between the two nations.
Iranian drones (Shahed) have already been used in Ukraine, and Russia has already obtained the licensing rights to manufacture their own domestic version (Geran-2), which has also been deployed on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Modern Russian air defense systems, in particular the S-400s, will neutralize NATO/Israeli air superiority against Iran.
The question is how fast Russia can manufacture these SAM batteries, since Russia already has its hands full at the moment. Ukraine, under the supervision of NATO, continues to lob rockets and missiles and launch drones into Russian territory (including along the Finnish-Russian border), which in turn forces Russia to deploy its air defense systems along vast stretch of its European border.
The delivery of the last two squadrons of S-400 that India ordered seven years ago, originally slated for delivery in 2023, had to be delayed until 2025. It’s clear that Russia is prioritizing its own air defenses against Ukraine and does not have the production level to export to other countries like Iran at the moment. So that will take years (also likely why NATO continues to force Russia to engage in Ukraine despite the fact that Ukraine can no longer win the war - it still serves its purpose of tying Russia from sending advanced military equipments to Iran and its allies in the Middle East).
Very cool and interesting. Thanks for the effort post.
FFS
Is there something special about the technology, or is it just that Iran has poor air defense and generic tech would fix that?
S-400 is possibly the best AA system in the world that is in serial manufacturing (there’s also S-500 which is even better, but afaik still in testing). For comparison, in 2019 Iran shot down most modern US stealth drone worth 200 million with old Soviet missile from 60’s and using domestically produced radar and guidance system.
I wouldn’t call it “special” but the S-400, while far from perfect, is still leaps and bounds better than any other system in the world with a 400km weapon range. This is 4 times the range of US AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation (radar) missiles.
This is going to keep most non-stealth 4th generation planes (F-15s, F-16s) from high altitude bombing (even under heavy jamming) and force them to fly at low altitude which will subject them to short/intermediate range anti-air defense batteries and MANPADs. Integrated air defense systems (IADS) is about building layers of air defense complexes where their sensors and fire control systems are networked within the same platform, which is what made the Soviet/Russian system so good.
Remember on the first day of the Ukraine war when Russia turned on its S-400 radar near its southern border for a moment and shot down a Ukrainian Su-27 some 250km away in Kyiv (which then crashed into an apartment complex)? It’s that lethal for the non-stealth planes.
The F-35s are likely going to fare better but the S-400 radars are probably also powerful enough to detect the stealth aircrafts at certain range. This is pure speculation however because there hasn’t been any real involvement of F-35s on the battlefront yet.
lebensraum speedrun any%
Israel doesn’t solo anything. They are a hand of the US wearing a blue and white flag
They may see with the US risking getting into a war with Russia and wanting a war with China that their own time to pull the US into a conflict to settle the region’s problems in their favor using the might of the US is quickly drawing to a close and will likely not exist in a few years so why let a crisis go to waste when they can try and get the US to take out Iran and Hezbollah for them which would allow greater “isreal” to become a reality. It’s an expansionist mindset too. Also fascists gonna fascist.
The only way towards de-escalation is coming to the negotiating table with Hamas. Negotiating with Hamas sets a bad precedent and, in the long term, compromise’s the entity’s ability to keep Palestine down. Their economy is already severely compromised as it is, so I think that going out with some kind of last hurrah and trying to accomplish all their goals at once is probably more appealing than having to back down, recover, and attempt to do it all again a decade from now.
because the US wants this – gotta get WW3 nice and hot without having the blame
US is out here using WW3 to unify it’s own citizens who are currently heading towards civil war behind jingoistic wartime patriotism, while also being a huge boon to the US economy through wartime production.
WW2 was great for the US, why wouldn’t WW3?
that seems pretty on the mark. i recall my high school teacher talking about WW2 as if it were one of the greatest things to ever happen in history
The realpolitik ghoul reason would be that they’re trying to start a big enough war that the only way the US can secure its interests in the region is to get directly involved, saving Israel from the consequences of its other aggressions.
But I don’t think it’s actually realpolitik ghouls in charge, I think they’ve just got nazis at the helm, and nazis think that all problems can be solved by attacking the weak, and all people are weaker than them.