Sachs shares his thoughts on the trip and in General about the China - US relationship. He argues that US policy has in fact failed to “contain China.” Here is a summary of the key points:
Unwise US Policies Towards China
The US has implemented various strategies since 2015 to “contain” China, including trade agreements excluding China, export bans on high-tech products, increased trade barriers, militarisation of the South China Sea, new military alliances, and opposition to initiatives like the Belt and Road. These approaches have failed to contain China, instead raising tensions and reducing global economic efficiency.
China’s Economic Prospects
China’s push to upgrade its industries positions it at the forefront of critical global technologies such as photovoltaics, wind power, and electric vehicles. With growing protectionism in the US and Europe, China’s trade relations will likely shift towards Asia, Russia, and developing countries. The Belt and Road Initiative will be pivotal in this transition, emphasizing investment in new energy and digital systems.
Overcapacity in the EV Sector
There is no overcapacity in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. However, the US and Europe are expected to become more protectionist, closing their markets to Chinese EVs. Conversely, Chinese EVs will dominate emerging markets, where US and European manufacturers cannot compete.
Global Economic Leadership
No single country, including China, is likely to become a global hegemon in the 21st century due to widespread technological and military capacities and demographic trends. The global economy will be multipolar, with regions like the US, EU, China, and others playing significant roles.
US Election Impact on US-China Relations
Regardless of the election outcome, US-China relations will remain challenging. The US has not accepted China’s rise, operating under outdated notions of US primacy. This delusion risks leading to conflict, similar to the US-Russia proxy war in Ukraine.
The US “Deep State”
The “deep state” in the US comprises security institutions driving wars and regime-change operations, involving over $1 trillion annually. This network includes the White House, Pentagon, intelligence agencies, and major arms contractors. Their agenda is not a conspiracy but a fact of US state organisation, often sidelining public opinion and involving secretive operations.
Covert Operations and Destabilisation
US foreign policy includes military alliances, economic pressures, and covert destabilisation operations. These actions are aimed at containing or weakening China and other regions, particularly through military bases and arms sales to Taiwan, contrary to prior agreements.
Risks of Containment Leading to War
The US media’s discussions of war with China are dangerously irresponsible. The Taiwan issue, if meddled with by the US, could lead to conflict. Diplomatic solutions are essential to avoid miscalculations and escalations, similar to the situation in Ukraine.
Quality of Debate on US-China Relations
The discourse on US-China relations in the US is often foolish, influenced by think tanks funded by the military-industrial complex. Anti-China rhetoric is prevalent, with little understanding of China’s history and policies.
The Washington Consensus and Globalisation
The Washington Consensus promoted by the US aimed to open markets for control over natural resources and foreign investments, ignoring critical aspects like education and healthcare. Globalisation will continue, driven by digital technologies and global challenges like climate change. However, increased protectionism in the US and Europe reflects a reaction to the rise of emerging economies.
China’s Role in Global Conflicts
China can play a diplomatic role in easing tensions in conflicts like Ukraine and Gaza through UN-backed initiatives. Promoting peace through diplomacy rather than military actions is crucial for global stability.