• KneeTitts@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    33
    arrow-down
    2
    ·
    8 months ago

    They had her anywhere between a 70-90% chance to win

    And its important to note that these predictions were for the pop vote, which she did actually win, so they were actually right.

    • EatATaco
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      10
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      8 months ago

      And its important to note that these predictions were for the pop vote, which she did actually win, so they were actually right.

      I’m not sure this is entirely true. Many polls just look at the popular vote, but most of the polls that claim “chance of winning” take into account the EC.

      • Pips@lemmy.sdf.org
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        13
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        8 months ago

        538 had her going into the election with a 70% chance of winning the electoral college. Nate Silver also went on multiple shows basically doing everything he could to get people to understand that meant 3 out of 10 times she loses.

    • nonailsleft
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      9
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      8 months ago

      No, 538 (and RCP?) actually has a rolling projection of ‘real’ chance to win the EC. But the chances of Hillary declined from >90% to 70% in the last week or so. When she was >90% everybody would say it looked like she was going to win, and that’s what people remember.

      • Furbag@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        1
        ·
        8 months ago

        But the chances of Hillary declined from >90% to 70% in the last week or so.

        Oh yeah, the Comey Probe. Back in the days when having the FBI open an investigation into you was enough to kill your presidential aspirations.

        Or at least that was the case for Hillary Clinton and the moderate voter bloc, but somehow Donald Trump is not held to such high standards.