he takes a couple pages to explain why he know that sightings of UFOs aren’t alien because he can simply infer how superintelligent beings will operate + how advanced their technology is. he then undercuts his point by saying that he’s very uncertain about both of those things, but wraps it up nicely with an excessively wordy speech about how making big bets on your beliefs is the responsible way to be a thought leader. bravo

  • swlabr@awful.systems
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    12
    ·
    1 year ago

    I should probably also say: Kids, don’t try this at home ($150K bets at 150:1 odds) unless you have read the literature on expert overconfidence, and tested your own calibration repeatedly.

    I heard Yud got some ribs removed so he could “test his own calibration”

    • elmtonic@lemmy.worldOP
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      7
      ·
      1 year ago

      lol i missed that in the thread

      expert overconfidence

      pretty sure it’s just regular overconfidence here. unless yud is claiming to be an expert on fucking aliens