With recent advancements in AI technologies such as Code Interpreter and LongNet, it seems that we are getting closer to a point where AI can write any software, including an operating system. Surprisingly, predictions from platforms like Metaculus suggest that this could become a reality as early as 2029 [1]. The combination of GPT-5, access to factual information through search, the ability to understand and keep track of vast amounts of code with LongNet, and the ability to debug and refine the code until it achieves the desired outcome with Code Interpreter, could enable AI to achieve tasks previously thought unimaginable by a single entity.
It would be interesting to explore alternative methods of assessing this progress, such as analyzing the exponential growth of GitHub issues opened versus solved over time, to determine if there is an expected convergence in the near future.
Difficult to say right now. While it’s bragged that AI can already “create” games and “webpages”. Current approaches rely heavily on human prompting and trial and error. Plus said dev AIs work best when creating common, simple, short projects. The AI will just auto complete stuff, and if its wrong, well it can’t tell the difference. Actual programs created by humans are multitudes of machines working together in perfect sync. It involves progressive iteration and refactor, as well as requiring many types of languages, data, images, sound, API use, organization, planning, and references (often from closed source programs) if it has any hopes of working.
Something as ambitious as an OS? Given the size of the task, you might as well wait for the singularity when all bets are off.