Castro v. Trump, a case challenging Trump’s candidacy with the 14th Amendment, is expected to decided by the justices on or before October 9.
So the case is already lost then. Does anyone actually believe the Supreme Court isn’t politically motivated anymore?
I don’t know. I think there’s a possibility. Remember, they’re politically beholden to the GOP, not necessarily Trump. The wealthy donors might not like his plans either. Which is perfect, because Thomas was thinking about a cruise in south America anyway.
I hope you are right. I don’t think our democracy can take four more years of Trump.
It’s hugely political.
But they are self conscious that the public recognizes that, and sees them as illegitimate.
It’s going to be a judgment call regarding whether the legitimacy they will lose is worth having trump around.
I think it won’t b, because Trump isn’t an asset: he’s a liability.
If they can claim legitimacy AND get rid of Trump, that’s a win in their eyes.
It seems to me that this is a dangerous game being played here. There is no ruling here that will lead to an overall positive outcome or be seen as legitimate by broad swaths of the country. I see any ruling creating more trouble than it solves.
To be clear, defeating Trump one last time in an election also isn’t going to solve anything, given how far gone the GOP is at this point. But it’ll be a damn sight better than the kind of political games that will start popping up if this works and better than giving Republicans a way to claim Trump was found not guilty of insurrection in court if it doesn’t.
The 14th amendment does not require a conviction.
It’s not like Trump can claim to have conceded in November. Afaik there’s no record of anything like that before the insurrection.
much as I’d love to see them kick him out, I’m pretty sure all of them are aware that their lives could quite literally be on the line here. they’re gonna figure out ahead of time who’s voting what way, so they can have may be a 6-3 split while still ensuring that they don’t risk actually letting it pass.
They deliberate behind closed doors and write long opinions; I don’t think it’s like, “okay, everybody vote on three! one… two…”
Or they might realize this is their one chance to be free of this stuff.
I don’t see any way they could, or more likely would, rule against him without one of the cases against him ending with a guilty verdict.
Not that I really know anything about this but isn’t this a state’s rights issue? Don’t states determine their own ballets? Anyway, this will be interesting to watch. I’d like to think we can’t be sure of the results.
No matter how it goes, I think this will be damaging to the GOP which is fine by me. They married the criminal and I am sure there are those who wish to cut him loose and those who can’t give him up.
Participation in an insurrection is disqualifying under the US Constitution, so it very much is not a states’ rights issue. The question is what standard of evidence is required.
The 14th amendment overrides that particular right, for obvious reasons.
Hopefully they remove him from the ballot.
Outcome: 5 to 4 max, they won’t.
I can’t wait to see how they dance around some of the plainest language in the entire fucking Constitution.
While Trump has not been charged with insurrection, Castro is pointing to Trump’s role in the January 6 Capitol riot.
Because he hasn’t been charged, the outcome will probably be 7 to 2
Given the extremely barebones wording of the law and the lack of any conviction, I will be surprised if any resulting opinion were anything but unanimous or per curiam without dissent.
I agree. And I honestly believe the opinion will indicate that Trump hasn’t been charged or convicted of a crime. Things may change, yet at the most he could be charged with insurrection prior to the court hearing the case. Regardless, I guarantee the court would grant Trump Due Process.
