I don’t love the Guardian’s methodology, so I may take some time tonight and try to calculate it with club ELO instead to see if there’s any analysis to be had there.
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Turns out, not really? We do have the most difficult run-in of the three title challengers, but I would argue that we have the most time between difficult matches (City, Villa, Spurs, United).
That being said, I think ultimately a lot of the race will come down to whether or not we drop points to City. Liverpool will be cruising through the quarters of the EL while we’ll actually have to buckle down.
